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在伊朗南部沿海地区使用统计下调模型进行气候变化预测
Sorour Esfandeh1, Afshin Danehkar1, Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny2
1Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
Heliyon
|April 29, 2024
概括
气候变化将使伊朗霍尔莫兹甘省的气温上升并改变降雨量. 这需要适应性水和能源管理策略,以减轻对农业和基础设施的风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 伊朗面临着严重的气候变化脆弱性,特别是在其南部沿海地区,降雨和温度模式不断变化.
- 对水资源和能源供应的紧急适应性管理对于应对未来气候变化挑战至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估伊朗南部沿海地区 (霍尔莫兹甘省) 的每日平均气温 (Tmean) 和每日总降雨量 (rrr24) 的变化.
- 为了未来的气候预测,利用合模型相互比较项目的第5 (CMIP5) 和第6 (CMIP6) 阶段的气候变化场景.
主要方法:
- 使用国家环境预测中心 (NCEP) 预测器的统计缩小模型 (SDSM).
- 纳入了CMIP5 (RCPs 2.6,4.5,8.5) 和CMIP6 (SSPs 1,2,5) 的21世纪早期,中期和晚期气候变化场景.
主要成果:
- 在模拟Tmean和rrr24时,CMIP5模型表现出了比CMIP6更好的性能.
- 在所有情景和时间段中,预计Tmean将大幅增加,在21世纪中叶和晚期出现显著上升.
- 降水显示出显著的波动,CMIP5 RCP8.5显示在特定地点和时期的最高温度增加 (+1.22°C) 和降雨增加 (+150.2毫米).
结论:
- 霍尔莫兹甘省的沿海地区将经历气温上升和降雨模式变化,对水,能源,农业和基础设施构成风险.
- 调查结果支持制定地方缓解和适应政策,包括收集水,流域管理和改进灌系统.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以评估对水资源,生态系统和基础设施的确切影响,以便有效管理.
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