基于修改的人类错误风险量化方法的飞行安全评估.
Yundong Guo1,2, Xinshi Suo1,2
1School of Aeronautical Engineering, Nanjing Vocational University of Industry Technology, Nanjing, China.
PloS one
|April 29, 2024
概括
本研究引入了人类错误的模糊风险评估 (FRAHE) 方法,以量化航空安全中的人类错误风险. 通过考虑人为错误的概率和影响,FRAHE方法提高了风险评估,改善了航空安全分析.
科学领域:
- 航空安全航空安全
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 人类因素工程 人类因素工程
背景情况:
- 目前的航空风险评估优先考虑硬件/软件故障而不是人类错误.
- 人类错误在航空系统中代表了一个关键的,但往往被低估的风险.
- 缺乏精确的方法阻碍了对人为错误风险的有效评估和减轻.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的方法,即人类错误的模糊风险评估 (FRAHE),用于识别和评估航空中的人类错误风险.
- 开发一个风险评估模型,整合人为错误的概率,影响和后果.
- 使用模糊推理方法解决人为错误数据中的不确定性和不准确性.
主要方法:
- 人类错误模糊风险评估 (FRAHE) 方法的开发.
- 模糊推理的应用,以处理风险评估中的不确定性和稀缺数据.
- 创建一个风险评估模型,将输入指标 (人为错误概率,影响,后果) 与输出风险严重程度联系起来.
主要成果:
- 拟议的FRAHE方法有效地识别了关键的人类错误类型,并确定了它们的风险严重程度.
- 开发的风险评估模型准确地描述了风险指标与整体风险严重程度之间的关系.
- 一个案例研究表明了模型在评估方法任务时的可用性和合理性.
结论:
- FRAHE方法为减少航空业中关键人为错误提供了宝贵的见解.
- 基于风险的建模方法支持前性分析,以防止航空事故和事故.
- 这种方法通过关注人类因素,提高了航空安全风险评估的全面性.
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