中国家庭消费转型与二氧化碳排放之间的因果关系:一个动态面板模型
Weizhen Ren1,2, Shilong Wan1, Zilong Zhang3,4,5,6
1Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|April 29, 2024
概括
在中国,减少家庭二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放是实现气候目标的关键. 这项研究揭示了消费变化和二氧化碳排放之间的U形联系,受收入和家庭因素的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 家庭消费分析
背景情况:
- 家庭消费占中国温室气体排放量的52%,这对实现2030年碳峰值目标至关重要.
- 了解家庭二氧化碳排放 (HCE) 的微量驱动因素对于有效的气候政策至关重要.
- 以前的研究还没有充分探讨消费模式转变和HCE之间的动态关系.
研究的目的:
- 在微尺度上估计中国的家庭二氧化碳排放量 (HCE).
- 调查家庭消费模式转变与人均HCE之间的动态关系.
- 确定影响HCE的关键社会经济和人口因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了三个波的全国代表性的纵向数据,能源统计和输入输出表.
- 应用最大概率和结构方程建模 (ML-SEM) 与面板数据分析.
- 研究了变量之间的动态关联和因果关系.
主要成果:
- 给定年的人均HCE与同一个家庭的前一年的HCE正相关.
- 消费模式转变和人均高消费率之间存在U形关系,收入增强了这一效应.
- 增加的消费倾向,收入,工资收入份额,资产价值和房屋空间与更高的HCE相关. 家庭规模和依赖率显示出负相关性. 面向女性和依赖互联网的家庭的二氧化碳排放量更高.
结论:
- 家庭消费模式显著影响中国的二氧化碳排放.
- 专注于消费转型的有针对性的干预措施,特别是考虑到收入影响,对于减少排放至关重要.
- 政策影响应解决家庭的不同特征,包括家庭结构和数字参与,以有效降低HCE.
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