全球人口:从超级马尔图斯行为到末日的关键性
Agata Angelika Sojecka1, Aleksandra Drozd-Rzoska2
1Department of Marketing, University of Economics in Katowice, ul. 1 Maja 50, 40-257, Katowice, Poland. agata.angelika.sojecka@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|April 29, 2024
概括
从全新世到2023年的全球人口动态使用超级马尔图斯 (SM) 方程进行了分析. 大约在1970年,从压缩到拉伸的指数增长发生了显著的转变,影响了未来的人口预测.
科学领域:
- 复杂系统物理 复杂系统物理
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 了解长期的全球人口趋势对于社会规划至关重要.
- 以前的模型经常简化了人口动态,未能捕捉到关键的过渡.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用新的超级马尔萨斯 (SM) 缩放方程,模拟从全新世到2023年的全球人口变化.
- 确定人口增长模式中的关键过渡点和行为.
主要方法:
- 数字过人口数据,以创建一个流的数据集进行分析.
- 应用两个超级马尔图斯 (SM) 缩放方程 (SM-1和SM-2) 来建模人口动态.
- 对扭曲敏感,基于衍生品的分析,以确定行为转变.
主要成果:
- 从压缩到拉伸的指数增长的过渡在1970年左右 (3亿人口) 使用SM-1方程被确定.
- SM-2方程揭示了与工业革命相关的受约束的关键行为,并推断出无限的人口年.
- 建立了与·福斯特超标末日方程和韦布尔分布的联系.
结论:
- 全球人口增长表现出复杂的,非线性动态,具有可识别的过渡期.
- 超级马尔图斯 (SM) 框架为分析历史和预测未来人口趋势提供了一个强大的工具.
- 这些发现对复杂系统物理学,极端价值理论和理解历史人口变化有意义.
相关概念视频
Threats to Biodiversity
22.3K
There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
22.3K
Conservation of Declining Populations
9.6K
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.
9.6K
Genetic Drift
39.7K
Natural selection—probably the most well-known evolutionary mechanism—increases the prevalence of traits that enhance survival and reproduction. However, evolution does not merely propagate favorable traits, nor does it always benefit populations.
39.7K
What is Climate?
18.4K
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
18.4K
Energy Budgets
9.2K
Organisms must balance energy intake with the energy required for growth, maintenance and reproduction. These trade-offs result in a variety of survivorship and reproductive strategies, including semelparity and iteroparity. Semelparous species, like annual plants, have only one reproductive episode in their lifetimes and consequently have short lifespans. Iteroparous species, by contrast, have many reproductive events during their lifetimes but have relatively few offspring. These two...
9.2K
Gene Flow
35.1K
Gene flow is the transfer of genes among populations, resulting from either the dispersal of gametes or from the migration of individuals.
35.1K


