温暖的冬季与西尼罗河病毒在西班牙南部更强烈的传播有关
Sergio Magallanes1,2, Francisco Llorente3, María José Ruiz-López1,2
1Department of Conservation Biology and Global Change, Estación Biológica de Doñana (EBD), CSIC, Seville, Spain.
Emerging microbes & infections
|April 30, 2024
概括
较高的冬季和春季温度与西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 在西班牙人身上循环增加有关. 这表明更高的温度可能表明野生动物的WNV风险增加,需要加强监测和控制措施.
科学领域:
- 兽医科学 兽医科学 兽医科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 是一种具有全球意义的蚊子传播的黄状病毒,影响人类和鸟类.
- 在西班牙,WNV是本土的,自2004年以来,已记录了人类病例.
- 对气候影响的WNV动态的长期数据分析是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 调查西班牙普通 (Fulica atra) 中WNV的长期血清流行情况.
- 通过使用18年的数据集来确定WNV血清流行率与气候因素之间的相关性.
- 评估温度作为WNV爆发早期预警信号的潜力.
主要方法:
- 分析了2003年至2020年期间从1707只常见收集的2,724个血清样本.
- 计算年均WNV血清流行率及其年比年变化.
- 在WNV血清流行率和最大冬季/平均春季温度之间的统计相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 幼中平均年均WNV血清流行率为24.67%,每年有显著的波动.
- 血清患病率与最大冬季和平均春季温度 (p < 0.01) 有显著的正相关性.
- 2020年西班牙南部的人类WNV爆发,是在野生动物中WNV循环增加的时期之后发生的.
结论:
- 冬季和春季温度升高可能是野生动物群体中WNV循环增加的早期指标.
- 预计的气候趋势表明,未来几十年内WNV活动可能会增加.
- 实施"一个健康"战略,包括加强载体控制和监测,对于减轻未来人类WNV风险至关重要.
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