竞争性风险名录预测丸生殖细胞瘤的老年患者因特定原因死亡率
Xiaoying Wu1, Mingfei Zhou2, Jun Lyu3
1College of Pharmacy, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Frontiers in medicine
|May 2, 2024
概括
这项研究为患有丸生殖细胞瘤 (TGCT) 的老年人开发了一种预后模型. 新的诺米图准确预测特定原因死亡率,帮助老年TGCT患者的临床决策.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 老年医学 老年医学
背景情况:
- 丸生殖细胞瘤 (TGCT) 是年轻男性中最常见的恶性瘤,但老年人的预后不太清楚.
- 被诊断为TGCT的老年人 (≥50岁) 代表了一个需要量身定制的预后评估的独特人群.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种竞争性风险模型,用于预测TGCT老年患者的预后.
- 建立一个名组图,准确估计这个人口中的特定原因死亡率.
主要方法:
- 利用国家癌症研究所的监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2004-2015) 对50岁及以上的TGCT患者.
- 雇员细灰竞争风险回归到特定死因的模型,估计累积发病率.
- 使用一致性指数 (C-指数),校准曲线,AUC和决策分析曲线 (DCA) 验证了名录的性能.
主要成果:
- 包括2,751名老年TGCT患者;因特定原因死亡的3年,5年和10年的累计发病率分别为4.4%,5.0%和6.1%.
- 特定原因死亡率的关键预测因素包括年龄,婚姻状况,收入,组织学,瘤大小,阶段和手术.
- 该名图表表现出了良好的区分 (C指数>0.8) 和准确性,在临床实用性方面表现优于传统的AJCC分期.
结论:
- 一个强大的竞争性风险名录成功开发,用于预测老年患者TGCT预后.
- 该工具为临床医生提供了一种可靠的方法,用于准确预测老年TGCT病例的预后和风险分层.
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