1990年至2030年皮肤状细胞癌的全球负担和预测研究:系统分析和与中国的比较
Journal of global health
|May 2, 2024
概括
在中国,皮肤状细胞癌 (cSCC) 负担正在上升,死亡率高于全球平均水平. 未来的趋势预测患病率和发病率增加,但死亡率下降,需要针对老龄化人口进行有针对性的预防.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 中国面临着严重的皮肤状细胞癌 (cSCC) 全球负担,由较低的医疗保健质量评分加剧.
- 迫切需要了解和预测中国cSCC发病率和死亡率的未来趋势.
研究的目的:
- 评估和预测从1990年到2030年cSCC负担的全球和中国具体趋势.
- 分析年龄标准化率并确定cSCC患病率,发病率,死亡率和DALYs中的人口结构模式.
主要方法:
- 利用了2019年全球疾病负担研究 (1990-2019) 的数据.
- 采用联合点分析和贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (BAPC) 模型来预测到2030年的趋势.
主要成果:
- 2019年,中国年龄标准化cSCC的发病率为每10万人中2.54 (流行率),2.12 (发病率),0.88 (死亡率) 和16.76 (DALY).
- 中国cSCC的患病率和发病率低于全球平均水平,但死亡率和DALY则更高.
- 所有指标显示,与全球水平相比,中国的年均百分比变化更快;预计到2030年,流行率和发病率的趋势将增加,死亡率和DALYs的下降.
结论:
- 在过去的三十年中,中国的cSCC负担越来越大.
- 在未来十年,cSCC的流行和发病率预计将超过全球平均水平,而死亡率和DALY预计将下降.
- 中国cSCC的预防和管理策略应优先考虑人口老龄化,因为人口老龄化.
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