芬兰发电的最低成本脱碳途径:凸量子回归方法
Natalia Kuosmanen1, Timo Kuosmanen2, Terhi Maczulskij3
1ETLA Economic Research, Finland.
Journal of environmental management
|May 2, 2024
概括
在发电方面实现芬兰2035年碳中和目标是可行的,边际减排成本 (MAC) 在0.1欧元至3.5欧元/CO2之间. 脱碳成本预计为6200万欧元,用于90%的减排和8300万欧元的零排放.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 芬兰的目标是到2035年在发电方面实现碳中和.
- 脱碳需要评估各种减排策略及其经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 确定芬兰电力部门的最低成本脱碳路径.
- 估计温室气体排放的边际减排成本 (MAC).
主要方法:
- 使用凸量子位回归来估计MACs.
- 应用企业级注册数据与财务报表合并.
- 采用两阶段的赫克曼校正来解决零排放公司的样本选择偏差.
主要成果:
- 每二氧化碳等效的中位数MAC在0.1欧元到3.5欧元之间.
- 预计90%的减排成本为6200万欧元.
- 实现零排放的估计成本为8300万欧元.
结论:
- 该研究为芬兰电力部门的有效气候政策提供了关键的经济见解.
- 可以确定成本最低的途径,支持国家碳中和目标.
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