预测目前和未来适合的分布范围的Trilocha变体 (沃克,1855) (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) 在中国
Qianqian Qian1, Danping Xu1, Wenkai Liao1
1College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.
Bulletin of entomological research
|May 3, 2024
概括
虫的害虫Trilocha varians主要在珍珠河流域有合适的息地. 气候变化影响其分布,温度和降水是影响适合地区的关键因素.
科学领域:
- 生态建模 生态建模
- 害虫管理 害虫管理 害虫管理
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 特里洛卡变种是一种影响科植物物种的重要害虫.
- 了解其分布对于有效的害虫管理策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析当前和未来适合的分布区域的特里洛卡变种.
- 确定影响其地理范围的关键环境变量.
- 在各种气候变化场景下比较适合息地的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用最大算法 (MaxEnt) 模型.
- 纳入了来自Worldclim.的19个生物气候变量.
- 分析了2050年代和2090年代的当前和未来气候变化预测 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 确定了主要的环境驱动因素,即年平均温度,温度季节性,最干燥的月份降水量和最干燥的季度降水量.
- 当前适合分布集中在92°13'E-122°08'E和18°17'N-31°55'N之间.
- 高适合性地区主要在广东南部,广西南方,台湾西部,香港和海南.
- 未来的气候场景显示适合地区的变化多样化,但主要的分布中心在很大程度上保持稳定,珍珠河流域始终被确定为主要息地.
结论:
- 温度和降水是Trilocha varians分布的关键决定因素.
- 虽然气候变化将改变适合息地的范围,但核心分布区域,特别是珍珠河流域,预计将持续存在.
- 这项研究为预测害虫爆发提供了有价值的见解,并为Ficus种植园的有针对性的管理干预提供了信息.
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