生育率教育梯度减弱的微型基础
Daniel Ciganda1,2, Angelo Lorenti1, Lars Dommermuth3
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
Population studies
|May 3, 2024
概括
生育率的社会梯度正在减弱,挑战了旧的理论. 计算建模显示,向受控生育转变,减少计划外分娩是关键驱动因素,使教育积极与所需的家庭规模联系起来.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 传统的生育率社会梯度,即高等教育与较低的生育率相关,正在消失.
- 现有的理论将这种转变归因于受过教育的人群中生育偏好的变化.
- 本研究探讨了导致这一人口格局转变的其他因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查生育率社会梯度减弱背后的驱动因素.
- 模拟生育调节和偏好变化如何影响教育与生育关系.
- 为教育成绩与生育率之间的关系下降提供计算解释.
主要方法:
- 利用计算建模来模拟生育趋势.
- 分析了家庭规模偏好下降对社会梯度的影响.
- 将受管制生育制度的概念纳入模型.
主要成果:
- 模拟生育率的社会梯度减弱是可能的,即使理想的家庭规模在稳步下降.
- 过渡到更为规范的生育制度是改变教育与生育关系的关键因素.
- 意外分娩的比例下降导致教育和生育率之间的负面关联较弱.
结论:
- 转向受监管的生育率,而不仅仅是改变偏好,解释了社会梯度的减弱.
- 将教育程度与所需生育能力联系在一起的机制随着意外分娩的减少而变得越来越占主导地位.
- 这项研究提供了对当代生育动态和教育影响的细微了解.
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