在越来越极端的气候条件下分散和连接
David D Hofmann1,2, Dominik M Behr1,2, John W McNutt2
1Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Global change biology
|May 3, 2024
概括
气候变化改变了奥卡万戈三角洲的洪水,影响了非洲野狗 (Lycaon pictus) 的分散. 增加的洪水减少了分散的成功和连接,可能会增加人类与野生动物之间的冲突.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 气候变化影响 气候变化影响
背景情况:
- 气候变化显著影响野生动物的生命历史特征,但对其分散和连接的影响不太了解.
- 奥卡万戈三角洲的可变洪水状态为研究这些影响提供了一个独特的自然实验.
- 临灭绝的非洲野狗 (Lycaon pictus) 作为评估气候驱动的分散变化的模型物种.
研究的目的:
- 研究环境条件的变化,特别是洪水范围的变化,如何影响非洲野狗的分散模式和生态系统连接.
- 模拟极端干旱和潮湿时期对野生狗的移动和连接的影响,类似于气候变化情景.
- 评估由于分散走廊的改变而导致人类与野生动物冲突增加的可能性.
主要方法:
- 利用20年的遥感洪水范围数据来定义最小和最大的洪水场景.
- 开发和参数化了一个运动模型,使用分散非洲野狗的GPS数据.
- 在两种极端洪水场景下模拟了12,000个个别的分散轨迹,以分析连接性和分散成功.
主要成果:
- 广泛的洪水 (最大程度) 减少了12%的整体分散成功,并增加了17%的分散持续时间.
- 在当地,在最大洪水条件下,分散成功率降低了多达78%.
- 洪水范围影响了替代散布走廊的出现,一些靠近人类主导的地区,大大改变了进入这些区域的移动模式.
结论:
- 气候变化所带来的环境变化可能会对野生动物的分散模式和景观连接性产生深远的影响.
- 转变的传播路线,特别是人类主导的地区,可能会加剧人类与野生动物之间的冲突.
- 预测和管理这些气候驱动的分散变化对于有效保护像非洲野狗这样的物种及其息地至关重要.
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