使用基于电子健康记录的临床适用风险评分分析和预测长期存活率
Carlos Andreu-Mateu1, Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig2, Néstor Sánchez-Bermejo2
1Hospital General Universitario de Castellón, Castellón de la Plana, Spain.
International journal of medical informatics
|May 3, 2024
概括
使用电子健康记录预测患者的长期存活率对于资源分配至关重要. 本研究确定了电子健康记录的关键变量,以确定针对性干预的高风险死亡率群体.
科学领域:
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
背景情况:
- 有效的医院资源管理需要准确预测患者的长期生存率.
- 识别高死亡风险的个体对于积极的医疗保健干预措施至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定用于预测患者长期存活率的电子健康记录 (EHR) 关键变量.
- 开发一个风险评分来识别高风险死亡率亚群.
主要方法:
- 对113,403个人进行了前性队列研究.
- 使用卡普兰-梅尔分析和多变量考克斯回归来分析电子病历数据和生存率.
- 基于考克斯系数开发了一个风险得分,以预测3年生存期.
主要成果:
- 考克斯模型实现了高预测准确度 (91.5%的c指数).
- 风险组的3年生存概率差异很大:99% (低风险) 到48.61% (非常高风险).
- 临床风险组被确定为生存的重要预测因素.
结论:
- 开发的考克斯模型对长期生存有很高的预测能力.
- 某些EHR变量,如临床风险组,显著影响存活率,需要进一步研究.
- 拟议的风险评分有效地识别了临床应用的高风险亚群.
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