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中东和北非 (MENA) 地区气候模式的近期和预测变化
Diana Francis1, Ricardo Fonseca2
1Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (ENGEOS) Lab, Earth Sciences Department, Khalifa University of Science and Technology, P. O. Box 127788, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. diana.francis@ku.ac.ae.
Scientific reports
|May 4, 2024
概括
气候变化正在改变非洲的天气模式,影响尘埃和云. 未来的预测表明,亚热带高峰向极移动,以及气候变化导致的喷流变化.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 观测和再分析数据显示,在过去的40年里,非洲的对流区域发生了重大变化.
- 热低点和亚热带高点的变化影响中东和北非 (MENA) 地区的尘埃负载和云层覆盖.
研究的目的:
- 分析非洲对流区域的历史气候变化.
- 评估气候模型在模拟这些变化的表现.
- 在极端气候变化场景下预测大气循环的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 对观察和再分析数据集的分析.
- 使用来自十个合模型对比项目第六阶段 (CMIP6) 模型的多模型组合.
- 模型模拟与现场测量和ERA-5再分析数据的比较.
主要成果:
- 在过去的四十年中,北非对流区域在夏季向北移动,冬季向东移动.
- CMIP6模型展示了捕捉历史趋势的熟练模拟.
- 在极端情景下,预计亚热带高峰向极移动1.5°,并在21世纪末扩大哈德利细胞.
- 热带东流在夏季减弱,冬季增强亚热带喷流.
结论:
- 气候变化明显地改变了非洲和中东北非地区的大气循环模式.
- 气候模型为预测未来气候变化提供了可靠的基础.
- 未来的变暖预计将在各个季节相对均,尽管有显著的循环变化.
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