全球模式和季节性流感病毒相互作用的决定因素
Yilin Chen1, Feng Tang2, Zicheng Cao3
1School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, PR China; School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, PR China.
Journal of infection and public health
|May 5, 2024
概括
季节性流感病毒的相互作用在全球范围内有所不同,甲型流感亚型A/H3N2和A/H1N1呈现出一致的负相关性. 人口因素显著影响流感A和B之间的相互作用,影响预防策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 季节性流感病毒的流行因季节和国家而异,这表明类型和亚型之间存在复杂的相互作用.
- 了解全球相互作用模式及其决定因素对于有效的流感管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索季节性流感类型/亚型之间的全球相互作用模式.
- 确定影响这些相互作用的关键决定因素.
- 改善季节性流感预测和预防策略.
主要方法:
- 利用来自55个国家的流感流行病学数据和多维因素 (人口,环境,病毒).
- 使用斯皮尔曼相关性,极端梯度提升 (XGBoost) 和夏普利添加式扩展 (SHAP) 进行相互作用分析.
- 应用融合交叉映射 (CCM) 来调查流感类型/亚型之间的因果关系.
主要成果:
- 在A/H3N2和A/H1N1流感之间观察到一致的全球负相关性.
- 甲型流感 (A/H3N2,A/H1N1) 和乙型流感之间的相互作用在不同国家之间有显著差异,主要是由人口相关因素驱动的.
- 流感A表现出比流感B更强大的驱动力,而A/H3N2比A/H1N1更具影响力.
结论:
- 在流感类型/亚型之间阐明了复杂和异质的全球相互作用模式.
- 确定了影响这些相互作用的关键因素,有助于有针对性的预防.
- 为增强季节性流感预测,模型构建和减少全球疾病负担提供了见解.
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