南极半岛的大气阻塞和温度
Deniz Bozkurt1, Julio C Marín2, Cristina Verdugo3
1Departamento de Meteorología, Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Cambio Climático (CEACC), Universidad de Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Center for Oceanographic Research COPAS COASTAL, Universidad de Concepción, Chile.
The Science of the total environment
|May 5, 2024
概括
南极半岛上的大气阻塞模式显示了不同的未来预测. 一些模型表明阻塞增加,特别是在夏季,而另一些模型则表明变化很小,影响区域气候和温度异常.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 南极气象学 南极气象学
背景情况:
- 南极半岛 (AP) 经常经历阻塞山脊和反旋风条件,影响极端天气事件.
- 了解这些模式对于预测区域气候变化至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查AP的历史和未来大气阻塞模式.
- 在不同的气候场景下分析地势高度 (Z500) 和近地表空气温度 (T2m) 异常.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5再分析和6个相结合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型用于历史 (1981-2010) 和未来 (2071-2100,SSP5-8.5) 时期.
- 对500hPa地势高度 (Z500) 和近地表空气温度 (T2m) 的异常进行了集中分析.
- 将模型输出与ERA5再分析数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 历史分析显示CMIP6模型和ERA5模型之间存在差异,EC-Earth3和INM-CM4显示更接近一致.
- 未来的预测表明各种阻塞趋势:EC-Earth3表明,夏季AP西北部和冬季贝林斯豪森海的阻塞增加.
- INM-CM4项目夏季Z500海拔高度在AP海岸上小幅增加,冬季变化微不足道;在极端事件期间观察到局部加剧.
结论:
- 模型的输出有很大的差异,突出了需要改进阻断机制的表现.
- 建议改进阻断定义和更广泛的模型组合,以便更好地了解AP气候变化影响.
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