确定从2007年到2023年伊拉克的细菌和病毒性脑膜炎趋势,使用结点回归
Hanan Abdulghafoor Khaleel1, Riyadh Abdulameer Alhilfi2, Salman Rawaf3
1Communicable Diseases Control Centre, Directorate of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Baghdad, Iraq.
Heliyon
|May 6, 2024
概括
自2018年以来,病毒性脑膜炎在伊拉克占主导地位,大多数病例影响15岁以下的男性. 伊拉克脑膜炎的整体趋势在2007年至2023年期间保持稳定.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 脑膜炎的病例死亡率和残疾率因病原体而异.
- 了解疾病趋势对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从2007年到2023年伊拉克脑膜炎的流行病学趋势.
- 为了确定脑膜炎病例的致病因子和人口统计模式的变化.
主要方法:
- 加入点回归分析应用于2007年1月至2023年5月的国家和次国家监测数据.
- 模拟脑膜炎根据年份和省份的计数,使用日志转换和Poisson变量.
- 根据加权的贝叶斯信息标准 (BIC) 选择最合适的模型.
主要成果:
- 病毒性脑膜炎在2018年后的流行率超过了细菌性脑膜炎.
- 在整个研究期内,脑膜炎仍然比其他细菌和病毒类型更少.
- 15岁以下的个体约占病例的80%,其中20%-40%是1岁以下的婴儿. 男人占病例的55%,在2019年显著的女性占主导地位 (70%).
结论:
- 自2018年以来,病毒性脑膜炎一直是伊拉克的主导形式.
- 大多数脑膜炎病例涉及15岁以下的男性.
- 伊拉克脑膜炎的整体趋势从2007年到2023年表现为稳定.
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