建模一个炎热干燥的未来:在气候变化下,预计适合半干旱河岸掠食者协会的适合环境中的大量范围减少
Brian R Blais1, John L Koprowski1
1School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, United States of America.
PloS one
|May 6, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着带蛇的息地,预计适合的环境将减少37%. 保护工作必须集中在确定安全区,并适应沿海生态系统的变暖和干燥条件.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化对生物多样性的影响
- 种类分布建模 种类分布建模
背景情况:
- 了解物种与环境的关系对于保护至关重要,特别是在气候敏感的河息地.
- 人为气候变化对生物多样性热点构成重大威胁.
- 物种分布模型 (SDM) 是评估当前分布和预测未来息地适宜性的关键工具.
研究的目的:
- 模拟亚利桑那州五种Thamnophis带蛇的现今和未来物种环境关系.
- 在2100年之前,根据各种气候变化情景,预测适合息地的变化.
- 确定潜在的保护避难所,并为干旱地带沿海生态系统的管理策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 为五种Thamnophis物种生成了260个集合物种分布模型 (SDM).
- 使用环境变量建模了当前物种与环境关系.
- 根据12种气候场景,从最乐观的温室气体路径到最不乐观的气候路径,预测未来适合的环境.
主要成果:
- 自20世纪初以来,Thamnophis带蛇很可能已经向北移动,冬季温度和季节性降水是关键因素.
- 预计到2100年,适合息地的平均数量将减少约37.1%.
- 现有威胁或温暖尾端种群的物种面临着最严重的息地丧失;一些物种可能需要上升到更高的海拔.
结论:
- 预计气候变化将大大减少干旱地沿海系统中Thamnophis带蛇的适合息地.
- 确定气候避难所和关键息地对于优先考虑保护行动至关重要.
- 有信息的保护战略对于维持这些脆弱生态系统中的生物多样性至关重要,因为这些生态系统正面临着变暖和干旱的趋势.
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