在1.5°C的气候未来,利用历史类比,对空气中直接的碳捕获和储存进行建模
Morgan R Edwards1,2, Zachary H Thomas2, Gregory F Nemet1,2
1La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706.
概括
实现1.5°C气候目标需要二氧化碳去除 (CDR) 技术,如直接空气碳捕获和储存 (DACCS). 建模显示,到本世纪中叶,DACCS的采用可能在0.2至4.9GtCO2之间,影响未来的排放.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 技术采用建模技术采用建模
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
背景情况:
- 将全球气温上升限制在1.5°C需要大气中的二氧化碳去除 (CDR).
- 许多CDR技术,包括直接空气碳捕获和储存 (DACCS),都是新生的,采用数据有限.
- 预测未来的CDR部署对于气候缓解战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的方法来建模早期CDR技术的采用.
- 评估采用直接空气碳捕获和储存 (DACCS) 对气候目标的潜在影响.
- 探索不同的DACCS增长途径对能源系统和排放的影响.
主要方法:
- 结合历史技术模拟数据与早期采用指标,以建模DACCS可行的增长途径.
- 利用综合评估模型 (全球变化分析模型,GCAM) 来评估这些途径在1.5°C排放政策下的影响.
- 分析了一系列DACCS采用场景,这些场景基于与各种技术类型的比较.
主要成果:
- 达克斯采用场景有很大的差异,预计到本世纪中叶的去除潜力从0.2 GtCO2 (低增长类型,如天然气管道) 到4.9 GtCO2 (高增长类型,如太阳能光伏).
- 较慢的DACCS采用与到2050年大幅减少 (44%) 的化石燃料产量相关,影响了能源投资.
- 较低的DACCS场景导致到本世纪末,运输 (高达43%) 和工业 (高达34%) 的残留排放量显著减少.
结论:
- 潜在的DACCS采用率的广泛范围凸显了未来CDR对减缓气候变化的贡献的不确定性.
- 政策干预可以显著影响DACCS部署,影响实现1.5°C气候目标的可行性.
- 了解技术模拟相似之处是制定政策的关键,使得DACCS能够快速有效地扩大规模.
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