1950年至2100年的阿尔塔米拉山洞CO2度的场景
Marina Sáez1,2, David Benavente2, Soledad Cuezva3
1Université de Toulouse CESBIO (CNES, CNRS, INRAE, IRD, UPS), Toulouse, France.
Scientific reports
|May 6, 2024
概括
一个新的数据驱动模型跟踪了阿尔塔米拉洞穴中的二氧化碳 (CO2),揭示了过去的访客影响,并预测了气候变化和旅游业影响的未来水平. 现在可以使用卫星数据进行实时监控.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地质地质地质地质地质地
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 洞穴环境对温度和土壤湿度等外部因素很敏感.
- 洞穴中的二氧化碳 (CO2) 水平可能会受到自然过程和人类活动的影响.
- 了解二氧化碳动态对于遗产保护和环境监测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数据驱动的模型,用于阿尔塔米拉山洞的二氧化碳度.
- 为了确定二氧化碳波动的关键驱动因素:室外温度和土壤湿度.
- 根据各种情景预测从1950年到2100年的二氧化碳水平,并评估监测能力.
主要方法:
- 使用数据驱动的方法,对初始条件不敏感,来导出控制二氧化碳度的方程.
- 该模型被重新设计,以纳入卫星观测和气象预测作为强制数据.
- 在不同的场景下,模拟了历史 (1950-2000) 和未来 (到2100年) 的二氧化碳水平.
主要成果:
- 在1950年至1972年期间,观察到极端的二氧化碳水平,主要是由于游客数量高.
- 在洞穴内实时监测二氧化碳是可行的,使用卫星数据作为外部强迫.
- 未来的二氧化碳最大值预计将超过20世纪80年代和90年代的水平,即使旅游业减少,墙壁和颜料微腐蚀也会加剧.
结论:
- 开发的模型准确地捕捉了阿尔塔米拉洞穴中的二氧化碳动态.
- 旅游业显著影响洞穴二氧化碳水平,对遗产结构有长期影响.
- 基于卫星的监测为管理洞穴环境和减轻风险提供了可行的工具.
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