在加勒比地区确定海平面上升:从温度转向质量控制
Deron O Maitland1,2, Kristin Richter3, Roshin P Raj4
1Department of Physics, The University of the West Indies, Kingston 07, JMAAW15, Jamaica. deron.maitland@mymona.uwi.edu.
Scientific reports
|May 6, 2024
概括
加勒比海海平面上升正在加速,由热膨胀和质量变化推动. 这一趋势明显快于全球平均水平,凸显了小岛屿发展中国家对气候变化影响的脆弱性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 加勒比海的小岛屿发展中国家 (SIDS) 对气候变化的影响,特别是海平面上升,非常脆弱.
- 加勒比海海平面上升 (3.40 ± 0.3毫米/年,1993-2019) 与全球平均海平面上升 (3.25 ± 0.4毫米/年,1993-2018) 相当.
- 加勒比海的季节性海平面变化受海面温度变化的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析最近几十年加勒比海平面上升的趋势和变化.
- 确定该地区海平面上升的主要驱动因素.
- 为了比较加勒比海平面上升的速度与全球估计.
主要方法:
- 对加勒比地区的卫星高度测量和海平面记录进行分析.
- 利用重力恢复和气候实验 (GRACE) 数据来评估质量变化.
- 将区域海平面数据与政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 的全球海平面上升估计进行比较.
主要成果:
- 加勒比海海平面上升趋势的明显转变发生在2003年底-2004年初.
- 从1993年到2003年,热膨胀是海平面上升的主要因素.
- 从2004年到2019年,质量变化占主导地位,导致海平面上升趋势加速,每年6.15±0.5毫米,比IPCC最近的GMSL上升估计速度快67%.
- 温度上升通过热膨胀导致海平面上升.
结论:
- 自2004年以来,加勒比海平面上升显著加快,主要是由于质量变化.
- 加勒比地区的加快速度超过了最近的全球平均水平,加剧了SIDS的气候变化脆弱性.
- 限制全球变暖对于减轻脆弱地区海平面进一步上升至关重要.
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