孟加拉国湿球球体温度的变化和与热有关的危害风险
A S M Maksud Kamal1, Abul Kashem Faruki Fahim2, Shamsuddin Shahid3
1Department of Disaster Science and Climate Resilience, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh. maksudkamal@du.ac.bd.
Scientific reports
|May 6, 2024
概括
气候变化正在增加孟加拉国的热应激,湿球球体温度 (WBGT) 的上升对健康构成重大风险. 空气温度是这种危险趋势的主要驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 孟加拉国因气温上升和天气模式变化而面临重大健康风险.
- 湿球球体温度 (WBGT) 是评估人类热应激的一个关键指标.
- 了解气候变化对健康的影响对于公共安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1979年到2021年,分析孟加拉国户外WBGT的时空变化.
- 评估热应激和相关健康风险的趋势.
- 为了确定增加WBGT的气象驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了高分辨率ECMWF ERA5再分析数据.
- 使用Liljegren的模型来计算WBGT.
- 进行了气象变量的趋势和相对重要性分析.
主要成果:
- 在全国范围内,年平均WBGT每十年增加0.08-0.5°C.
- 在高/极端高温风险的日子显著增加,特别是在季风和季风前的时期.
- 空气温度被确定为WBGT上升的主要驱动因素,其次是湿度,风速和太阳辐射.
结论:
- 气候变化明显增加了孟加拉国各地的热压力.
- 危险的炎热条件的频率和强度正在升级,造成严重的公共卫生威胁.
- 迫切需要缓解和适应战略,以应对气候相关的健康风险.
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