走着谈话:如何识别反多元主义政党
Juraj Medzihorsky1,2, Staffan I Lindberg2
1Durham University, Durham, UK.
概括
通过检查反多元主义来确定未来的专制主义者是可能的. 本研究使用全球政党数据引入了反多元主义指数 (API),证实了其在向民主发出潜在威胁信号方面的有效性.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 比较政治比较政治比较政治
- 民主研究 民主研究
背景情况:
- 全球专制化的上升对全球民主制度构成重大威胁.
- 民主选举的领导人越来越侵蚀民主规范,对现有民主构成挑战.
- 早期识别潜在的专制主义者对于维护民主制度至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定反多元主义,而不是民粹主义或意识形态,可以预测未来的独裁者.
- 开发和经验测试一种新的反多元主义指数 (API),用于识别对民主的潜在威胁.
- 评估反多元主义指标的预测有效性,以标志可能破坏民主的领导人.
主要方法:
- 利用专家编码的V-Party数据集,涵盖了从1970年到2019年的全球政党.
- 根据专家对党派特征的评估,开发了一种新的反多元主义指数 (API).
- 进行了系统的经验测试,以验证API的预测能力.
主要成果:
- 反多元主义指数 (API) 有效地识别了具有反民主倾向的领导人和政党.
- 有证据支持反多元主义是潜在专制化的关键指标的论点.
- API和林茨的指标成功地标志着那些有可能使民主脱轨的人,如果他们掌权.
结论:
- 反多元主义比民粹主义或极端意识形态更准确地预测未来的独裁者.
- 开发的反多元主义指数 (API) 为早期发现对民主的威胁提供了有价值的工具.
- 调查结果强调了监测政治行为者的反多元主义情绪的重要性,以维护民主规范.
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