比瓦里亚特 (Bivariate) 订购了对摩托车骑手和乘客伤害严重程度关系以及相关风险因素的探测模型
Mohammed A Yakubu1, Eric N Aidoo2, Richard T Ampofo3
1Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana.
概括
摩托车驾驶员和乘客的摩托车事故伤害严重程度与共享的未观察到的因素有关. 性别和道路状况等风险因素对骑手和乘客的伤害有不同的影响.
科学领域:
- 道路交通安全问题 道路安全问题
- 伤害流行病学 伤害流行病学
- 运输研究 运输研究
背景情况:
- 摩托车事故对骑手和乘客构成重大风险.
- 了解伤害严重程度的决定因素对于预防策略至关重要.
- 之前的研究经常单独分析骑手和乘客的伤害.
研究的目的:
- 为了同时模拟摩托车骑手和乘客的伤害严重程度.
- 为了确定与两个人的伤害严重程度相关的风险因素.
- 为了考虑到骑手和乘客伤害严重程度之间的内生关系.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自加纳阿尚蒂地区 (2017-2019) 的摩托车事故数据.
- 实施了一种双变的有序试验模型来分析关节损伤的严重程度.
- 考虑到骑手和乘客共同的未观察到的因素.
主要成果:
- 在骑手和乘客伤害严重程度之间发现了显著的正相关性 (0.63),表明共享的风险因素.
- 乘客的性别,每周的日期,道路宽度和光线条件对骑手和乘客的伤害严重程度产生了不同的影响.
- 一天中的时间,天气,碰撞类型和车辆数量共同影响了两者的受伤严重程度.
结论:
- 在摩托车事故中,共同的未观察到的因素显著地将骑手和乘客的伤害严重程度联系在一起.
- 特定的风险因素对乘客及其乘客有不同的影响.
- 调查结果为摩托车乘客提供了有针对性的安全干预措施.
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