人口出口地区的移民和财政差距
1School of Taxation, Jilin University of Finance and Economics, Changchun, Jilin, P. R. China.
PloS one
|May 7, 2024
概括
移民通过减少经济产出和税收收入来扩大财政差距. 当地政府难以管理支出,试图吸引返回人口时可能会加剧财政差距.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共财政是公共财政.
- 区域科学 地区科学
背景情况:
- 移民给人口出口地区带来了财政挑战.
- 关于人口外流对地方政府的财政影响的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 分析移民对财政差距的长期影响.
- 调查人口外流与财政收入和支出动态之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 为移民和财政差距构建一个一般平衡模型.
- 使用两步系统的实证验证 时刻的通用化方法 (GMM) 模型.
- 专注于中国东北地区长期人口迁移的案例研究.
主要成果:
- 移民导致直接的经济损失,扩大了财政差距.
- 人口外流通过税率和税基效应扩大了财政收入差距.
- 虽然短期财政支出差距越来越大,但地方政府从长远来看会适应.
- 增加的移民严重程度与更大的财政差距直接相关.
- 如果移民趋势不可逆转,吸引人口的努力可能会加剧财政差距.
结论:
- 移民有助于扩大人口出口地区的财政差距.
- 对于面临财政不可持续性的地区来说,了解这些动态至关重要.
- 政策干预应考虑人口外流的长期财政后果.
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