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为了得出物种灵敏度分布,选择哪个分布? 分析急性和慢性生态毒性数据的含义

Miina Yanagihara¹, Kyoshiro Hiki², Yuichi Iwasaki³

¹KWR Water Research Institute, Groningenhaven 7, Nieuwegein 3433 PE, the Netherlands; Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University Bunkyo-cho 3, Matsuyama, Ehime 790-8577, Japan.

Ecotoxicology and environmental safety

|May 7, 2024

概括

在环境风险评估中,日志正常分布是物种灵敏度分布 (SSD) 的可靠选择. 这种统计方法准确地估计了许多化学品的危险度 (HC5).

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
生态毒理学生态毒理学
风险评估风险评估

背景情况:

在环境风险评估中,物种敏感度分布 (SSD) 对于导出危险度 (HC5) 至关重要.
对SSD选择适当的统计分布存在有限的系统分析.

研究的目的:

系统地评估四种统计分布 (日志-正常,日志-逻辑,伯尔类型III,韦布尔) 的性能,用于SSD估计.
确定最合适的分布,从水生生态毒性数据中得出HC5值.

主要方法:

应用日志-正常,日志-逻辑,伯尔型III和韦布尔分布到急性和慢性SSD估计.
使用了191种化学品 (急性) 和31种化学品 (慢性) 的水生毒性数据.
使用更正的Akaike信息标准 (AICc) 和对下方SSD尾部的视觉检查,评估分布适合.

主要成果:

对于大多数化学物质,日志正常分布通常与其他分布相比,提供了更好的或同等的匹配.
来自替代分布的HC5值通常在0.1-10比率范围内相对于日志正常分布.
在急性和慢性SSD估计中,日志正常分布被证明有效.

结论:

在环境风险评估中,日志正常分布是SSD导出的一种强大且推的首选.
调查结果支持继续广泛使用日志正常分布来进行SSD分析.
这项研究为选择适合生态毒性数据分析的统计模型提供了宝贵的见解.

关键词:

生态风险评估评估生态风险评估危险评估危险评估危险评估模型选择模型选择统计分布的统计分布

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