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在法国大都会地区的Covid-19封锁期间死亡年龄:非参数定量回归方法
Jonathan Roux1, Marlène Faisant1, Diane François2
1Santé Publique France (SpF), Cellule Régionale Bretagne, Direction Des Régions 6 Place Des Colombes, Rennes Cedex, 35042, France.
BMC public health
|May 7, 2024
概括
在COVID-19封锁期间,死亡时年龄的第一个数量显著增加,特别是在男性中,这表明死亡的年轻人较少. 这种转变因性别和地区而异,反映了流行病的强度.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19封锁的目的是减少住院和死亡.
- 这些措施可能改变了死亡率模式,包括年龄和性别分布.
- 法国经历了显著的过度死亡率,以东向西的梯度.
研究的目的:
- 描述法国2020年春季封锁期间死亡年龄的演变.
- 分析这些变化在布列塔尼,伊尔-德-法兰西 (IDF) 和勃朗哥尼-弗朗什-康特 (BFC).
- 了解封锁措施对特定年龄的死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用2011年1月至2020年8月的法国公共死亡率数据.
- 在封锁期间观察到的年龄分布与使用贝叶斯非参数定量回归的预期分布进行了比较.
- 分析了死亡时年龄的1,5,95和99分位数和分位数.
主要成果:
- 在封锁期间,过度死亡率从布列塔尼的+3%到IDF的+102%不等.
- 在所有地区,死亡年龄的第一个量度显著增加,平均增长7年.
- 在封锁期间,较少的年轻人,主要是男性,死亡,女性的变化不那么明显,区域异质性更大.
结论:
- 封锁导致死亡时个体的年龄显著增加,特别是在年轻人中.
- 死亡年龄的变化因性别而异,受封锁前流行病强度的影响.
- 这些发现补充了有关COVID-19大流行期间过度死亡率的现有研究.
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