社会保障和国际货币基金组织:承诺与绩效相比
Alexandros Kentikelenis1, Thomas Stubbs2
1Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
Globalization and health
|May 7, 2024
概括
国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 在其贷款计划中继续优先考虑紧缩措施而不是社会支出. 尽管承诺支持社会倡议,财政整合仍然占主导地位,社会支出底层经常被证明是无效或不足的.
科学领域:
- 发展经济学 发展经济学
- 国际金融 国际金融
- 公共政策分析 公共政策分析
背景情况:
- 全球南方国家面临着重大的经济和社会挑战,包括巨额债务负担.
- 国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 是一个关键的贷款人,历来为借贷国家主张财政整顿 (紧缩).
- 国际货币基金组织最近的举措旨在确保贷款支持社会支出和可持续发展目标.
研究的目的:
- 评估国际货币基金组织最近在紧缩和社会支出方面的贷款做法.
- 评估最近贷款计划中国际货币基金组织授权的社会支出地板的有效性.
主要方法:
- 收集了2020年至2022年间签署的21笔国际货币基金组织贷款的支出数据.
- 分析了截至2023年8月的定期贷款审查数据.
- 将紧缩政策的实施和影响与社会支出最低水平进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 紧缩措施仍然处于中心地位,21个国家中有15个国家经历了财政空间的减少.
- 社会支出地板缺乏明确的定义,导致不一致的应用.
- 地板通常缺乏雄心勃勃的支出增长目标,通货膨胀会侵蚀任何收益;执行率低于紧缩政策,它们可以充当支出上限.
结论:
- 国际货币基金组织的贷款计划仍然高度关注紧缩政策,这与广告宣传的转向社会支出的转变相矛盾.
- 社会支出地板主要作为损害控制,提供有限的社会改善.
- 社会保护的普遍主义方法被提出为更持久的替代方案.
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