干涉2016年大选以及美国对民主的满意度
Florian Justwan1, Bert Baumgaertner1, Madeleine Curtright1
1Department of Politics & Philosophy, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA.
概括
外国的选举干预只会降低民主的满意度,如果选民认为他们决定性地影响了结果. 群体内部的忠诚度会影响选民对这些干预的看法.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 国际关系 国际关系
- 公众的意见 公众的意见
背景情况:
- 外部选举干预在民主社会中越来越令人担忧.
- 了解它们对公民民主满意度的影响对于政治稳定至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往忽视了将干预与论联系起来的心理机制.
研究的目的:
- 调查外部选举干预如何影响对民主的满意度.
- 为了确定干预的仅仅意识或感知到的决定性是否会影响系统支持.
- 检查选举结果和群体内忠诚度的调节作用.
主要方法:
- 分析美国调查数据以测试理论预期.
- 统计建模以评估感知干预决定性的影响.
- 检查选举胜利/失败和群体内忠诚度如何与干预信念相互作用.
主要成果:
- 仅仅了解外国干预并不减少民主的满意度.
- 对干预的决定性影响的信念显著降低了民主满意度.
- 获胜政党的支持者对干预信念的影响较小;对于赢家和输家来说,团队内部的忠诚度会以不同的方式缓和这种影响.
结论:
- 外部选举干预的感知影响,而不仅仅是存在,对民主满意度很重要.
- 选举结果和心理因素,如群体内忠诚度,塑造了公民对外国干预的反应.
- 调查结果强调了外部影响,选民心理和民主合法性之间的复杂相互作用.
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