在气候变化和对管理的影响下预测适合Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera:Flatidae) 的地区
Zhengxue Zhao1,2,3,4, Lin Yang1,2,3, Jiankun Long1,2,3
1Institute of Entomology, College of Agriculture, Guizhou University, Guiyang 550025, PR China.
Journal of insect science (Online)
|May 8, 2024
概括
气候变化正在扩大Metcalfa pruinosa的入侵范围. 这项研究预测了未来适合这种害虫的息地,有助于全球管理战略.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 北美原产的一种入侵性半角物种Metcalfa pruinosa在全球范围内威胁着农业和人类环境.
- 了解影响其分布的气候因素对于预测和管理其传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用气候数据预测Metcalfa pruinosa的当前和未来全球分布.
- 确定驱动入侵物种分布的关键环境变量.
- 为害虫防治策略和检疫措施提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用事件记录和环境变量开发了一个Maxent模型.
- 使用AUC和TSS指标验证的模型性能.
- 根据当前和未来的气候情景,预计适合息地.
主要成果:
- 马克森特模型显示出高精度 (AUC=0.9329,TSS=0.926).
- 年降水量 (Bio12) 和最温暖月份的最高温度 (Bio5) 被确定为关键限制因素.
- 目前适用面积估计为1.01×107平方公里,在中国南部,欧洲南部和美国东部具有很高的适用性.
- 未来的气候场景预测适合地区的扩张,主要是向北.
结论:
- 气候变化对Metcalfa pruinosa分布产生重大影响,预计范围将扩大.
- 该研究为入侵物种管理提供了一个预测框架.
- 这些发现支持实施全球监测和严格的隔离措施,以控制M. pruinosa.
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