一个新的样本大小规划方法对个人特定的VAR研究: (1) 预测性准确性分析
Jordan Revol1, Ginette Lafit2, Eva Ceulemans3
1Research Group of Quantitative Psychology and Individual Differences, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. jordan.revol@kuleuven.be.
Behavior research methods
|May 8, 2024
概括
使用矢量自回归 (VAR) 模型进行N=1研究的样本大小规划,现在可以将预测准确性分析 (PAA) 纳入. 这种方法提供了对模型过拟合的洞察力,并且通常比传统功率分析更小的样本大小.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- N=1研究越来越多地用于检查个体内的短期动态过程.
- 矢量自回归 (VAR) 模型通常用于分析N=1研究的数据.
- 确定必要的测量次数对于样本大小规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的基于模拟的样本大小规划方法,即预测精度分析 (PAA).
- 通过纳入模型过来解决N=1研究中传统功率分析的局限性.
- 为评估多变量时间序列数据中的样本外预测准确性提供一个新的指标.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于模拟的方法 (PAA) 用于样本大小规划.
- 提出了一种新的多变量预测准确度度指标.
- 使用一个闪亮的应用程序来促进PAA方法.
- 用模拟和真实数据将PAA与传统功率分析进行比较.
主要成果:
- 预测性准确性分析提供了对潜在模型过拟合的洞察力,这是功率分析未解决的因素.
- 与功率分析相比,PAA通常建议采用较小的样本大小.
- 模型参数影响基于功率和预测准确性的样本大小建议.
结论:
- 预测准确性分析 (PAA) 为N=1研究中的样本大小规划提供了对功率分析的宝贵补充.
- PAA增强了对模型通用性和潜在过拟合的理解.
- 拟议的PAA方法和相关应用程序可以帮助研究人员优化N=1动态过程研究的样本大小.
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