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在塞浦路斯评估了16年来温度与死亡率的关系
Barrak Alahmad1,2, Qinni Yuan1, Souzana Achilleos3,4
1Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
概括
在塞浦路斯,极端的寒冷和高温显著增加了死亡风险. 寒冷天气导致8.0%的过度死亡,而热量导致1.3%的过度死亡,突出了需要气候适应策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 环境温度与死亡率之间的关系已在全球范围内确立.
- 地中海岛屿塞浦路斯面临着快速的气候变化,对温度与死亡率的关联数据有限.
- 了解这些风险对于快速变暖地区的公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 检查塞浦路斯每日环境温度与全因死亡率之间的关联.
- 量化归因于极端温度的过度死亡负担.
- 为公共卫生干预和气候适应战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 时间序列分析使用准鱼类分布和分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM).
- 2004年1月1日至2019年12月31日期间从塞浦路斯五个地区收集的数据.
- 进行的元分析以估计整体温度-死亡率-剂量-反应关系.
主要成果:
- 在五个地区,温度与死亡率的关联没有发现显著的异质性.
- 感冒的影响:相对死亡风险分别为第1,2,5和第5个温度百分点的1.55,1.41和1.32.
- 热效应:相对死亡风险分别为第95个,第97.5个和第99个温度百分位数的1.10,1.17,和1.29.
- 过度死亡率:寒冷的日子占死亡人数的8.0%,而炎热的日子占死亡人数的1.3%.
结论:
- 在塞浦路斯,极端的寒冷和极端的热带都带来了严重的死亡风险.
- 寒冷的温度比热量对过度死亡率的贡献要大得多.
- 在塞浦路斯和类似地区迫切需要有针对性的公共卫生干预和气候适应战略.
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