气候和土地利用对流域人为投入和河流出口动态的影响:全球分析
Hao Wu1, Xinyi Jiao1, Yucang Wang1
1College of Environmental & Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China.
The Science of the total environment
|May 8, 2024
概括
这项研究量化了来自河流的全球 (P) 出口,发现人为P输入 (NAPI) 与河流P流量有很强的相关性. 它预计到2050年,P流量将大幅减少,这将有助于控制污染的战略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水的质量 水的质量
- 全球生物地质化学循环
背景情况:
- 河流 (P) 出口和人为净P输入 (NAPI) 之间的预测关系在流域尺度上是已知的.
- 这些关系的全球或区域范围尚未经验量化.
- 了解这些动态对于管理污染至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 根据NAPI,对河流总P (TP) 流量进行数据驱动的全球评估.
- 确定调节河流P出口分量的关键因素.
- 开发一个定量模型来预测河流TP流量,并预测未来的减少.
主要方法:
- 全球358个流域的数据分析.
- 随机森林元分析以确定调节P出口分数的因素 (NAPI组件,水气候,土地利用).
- 开发一个混合效应的元回归模型来量化TP流量-NAPI关系.
主要成果:
- NAPI显示出高度的空间异质性和与河流TP流的强烈相关性.
- 河流P的出口分数受到NAPI组件,水气候和土地利用的监管.
- 该模型估计了中国,北美和欧洲的TP流量中遗留的P贡献 (11-27%) 和NAPI贡献 (73-89%).
- 根据各种社会经济路径,预计到2050年河流TP流量将减少52-77%.
结论:
- 开发了一种可靠的方法来量化人为P输入和河流P出口动态.
- 该研究提供了对污染控制策略的关键见解.
- 这些发现指导了减轻因气候和土地利用变化而导致投入的潜在增加的努力.
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