深度损害功能的损害启动点对洪水风险评估的影响
Md Adilur Rahim1,2,3, Ayat Al Assi1,3,4, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz1,3
1LaHouse Resource Center, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Baton Rouge, LA USA.
概括
准确选择损害发起点 (DIP) 对于洪水风险评估至关重要. 错误的DIP选择显著影响平均年度洪水损失 (AAL) 的计算,特别是在特殊洪水危险区域.
科学领域:
- 水文和水资源管理 水文和水资源管理
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 风险评估 风险评估
背景情况:
- 洪水深度是洪水风险模型中结构和内容损失的关键决定因素.
- 损坏起始点 (DIP) 是深度损坏函数的一个关键参数,代表了相对于建筑高度而言损坏开始的洪水水平.
- 准确的洪水风险评估需要充分了解DIP选择如何影响损失估计.
研究的目的:
- 调查损害发起点 (DIP) 选择对特殊洪水危险区域建筑物洪水风险评估的影响.
- 在不同的DIP场景下分析洪水特征 (Gumbel分布参数μ和α) 和平均年度洪水损失 (AAL) 之间的关系.
- 量化负面与非负面DIP对整体洪水风险的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用Gumbel极端值分布,用位置 (μ) 和尺度 (α) 参数来表征洪水风险.
- 用不同的DIP分析了深度损伤函数,包括负值 (损伤始于一楼以下的高度).
- 计算和比较了不同DIP场景和洪水参数的平均年度洪水损失 (AAL).
主要成果:
- 年平均洪水损失 (AAL) 是独立于Gumbel分布的位置参数 (μ).
- 当损伤开始在第一层楼高以下 (负DIP) 时,AAL表现出与尺度参数 (α) 的指数式衰变模式.
- 将DIP转移到一楼的高度 (DIP=0) 会导致AAL与α的线性增加. 负的DIP对AAL的贡献比积极的DIP更大.
结论:
- 选择损害发起点 (DIP) 极大地影响了洪水风险评估结果.
- 正确定义DIP对于准确估计年平均洪水损失 (AAL) 是必不可少的,特别是在易受洪水袭击的地区.
- 该研究强调了负面DIP对整体洪水风险的重大影响,强调需要精确确定损害发起点.
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