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评估马达加斯加未来的盆地内水资源供应:考虑到气候变化,人口增长和土地利用变化
Rakotoarimanana Zy Harifidy1, Ishidaira Hiroshi2, Rakotoarimanana Zy Misa Harivelo3
1Integrated Graduate School of Medicine, Engineering and Agricultural Sciences, University of Yamanashi, Kofu 400-8511, Japan.
Water research
|May 9, 2024
概括
到2050年,气候变化和人口增长将减少马达加斯加主要河流盆地 (MRBM) 的水资源. 这项研究确定了缺水的盆地,并强调了对可持续水资源管理的迫切需要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 马达加斯加的主要河流流域 (MRBM) 对人口和生态系统的供水至关重要.
- 对于气候变化的影响和对这些盆地的关键影响因素的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 评估未来的水供应量,用于MRBM内的家庭和农业用水.
- 将预测的变化与历史趋势进行比较,并确定水压盆地.
- 分析气候变化,土地利用和人口动态对水资源的综合影响.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用一种新的方法来评估未来的盆地内水资源.
- 引入三个不平衡指标来量化潜在水资源 (PWR) 的空间可用性,分布和可变性.
- 根据共享社会经济路径2 (SSP2-4.5) 情景进行分析,包括气候变化预测,土地使用和人口数据.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年在大多数MRBM盆地内减少PWR,原因是蒸发转化增加和降水减少.
- 人均PWR (37%) 和农用地 (69%) 显著减少,归因于人口和农用地分配.
- 确定面临严重水资源短缺的特定盆地 (如Mangoro,Onilahy),预计人口增长和农业扩张将加剧问题.
结论:
- 气候变化,土地利用变化和人口增长与MRBM中不断增加的水资源短缺密切相关.
- 为了在脆弱的盆地可持续利用水资源,需要紧急和高效的管理策略.
- 该研究为马达加斯加的政策制定者和水资源管理者提供了关键的见解.
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