在老年人中使用例行记录的一般实践数据预测意外入院:开发和验证预测模型
Jet H Klunder1, Martijn W Heymans2, Iris van der Heide3
1Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Aging and Later Life, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Amsterdam.
概括
开发了一个易于使用的预测工具,以识别高风险的老年人计划外入院. 这种模式有助于全科医生 (GPs) 在为社区居住的老年人做出决定和实施预防性干预.
科学领域:
- 老年学是指老年学的学科.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 预测分析是一种预测分析.
背景情况:
- 意外入院对老年人来说构成重大风险.
- 早期识别高风险个体对于实施预防策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个可访问的预测模型,用于社区居住的老年人计划外入院.
- 该模型旨在利用易于获取的数据,通过全科医生 (GPs) 进行快速临床评估.
主要方法:
- 这是一项回顾性研究,使用了243324名年龄≥65岁的成年人电子健康记录.
- 数据被分为开发和验证集,以预测6个月内意外入院的情况.
- 使用后向选择的后勤回归;模型使用AUC和校准图表进行内部和外部验证.
主要成果:
- 7.6%的参与者在6个月内无计划住院.
- 一个"易于使用"的模型,结合年龄,性别,先前的入院,肺气,心力衰竭和多药,显示出强大的预测能力 (AUC 0.72).
- 在地理验证后,模型性能保持稳定,表明了稳定性.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型表明,对老年人意外入院的预测能力令人满意.
- 成功创建了一个易于使用的工具,帮助医生做出针对性预防干预的决策.
- 该模型的稳定性得到了不同验证方法一致的性能证实.
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