西亚果物种 Malus orientalis Uglitzk. 的潜在范围. 在气候变化下
Łukasz Walas1, Shirin Alipour2, Shiekh Marifatul Haq3
1Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Parkowa 5, Kórnik, 62-035, Poland. lukaswalas@man.poznan.pl.
BMC plant biology
|May 9, 2024
概括
气候变化将缩小高加索果 (Malus orientalis) 的息地,增加碎片化. 北高加索和希尔卡尼亚为这种野生果的亲属提供了重要的避难所,这对未来的栽培果繁殖至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 植物遗传学和育种方法
- 气候变化影响评估 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 野生果的亲属,如高加索类果 (Malus orientalis),是培养果繁殖的重要遗传资源,特别是适应气候变化.
- 目前对野生果亲属的潜在分布和气候变化影响的知识仍然有限,阻碍了保护和繁殖的努力.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化对土耳其,亚美尼亚,格鲁吉亚,俄罗斯和伊朗的息地分布和息地碎片化的潜在影响.
- 确定Malus orientalis具有很高的气候适应性和连接性的关键区域,作为潜在的避难所.
- 通过利用野生果的遗传多样性,为保护战略和未来的育种计划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt建模来预测当前和未来气候变化场景下的潜在分布 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5).
- 采用形态空间分析 (MSPA) 来评估息地碎片化,连接性,并确定核心/边缘区域.
- 分析了适合息地区域和物种范围内的碎片化模式的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计在气候变化下,Malus orientalis潜在适合的息地将大幅减少,从858,877平方公里 (目前) 减少到456,795平方公里 (RCP8.5).
- 预计息地碎片化将增加,边缘/核心比率在未来情景下从50.95%上升到67.70%.
- 北高加索和希尔卡尼亚地区被确定为具有高息地适宜性和连接性的关键避难所,而扎格罗斯和土耳其中部则面临范围收缩.
结论:
- 气候变化对Malus orientalis构成重大威胁,导致范围减少和息地碎片化增加.
- 高加索和赫尔卡尼亚森林地区对于东方的长期生存至关重要,应该优先保护.
- 了解这些空间变化对于制定有效的保护策略和利用野生果的遗传潜力来培养品种至关重要.
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