一个具有竞争风险的诺米克图,用于预测原发性状细胞甲状腺癌患者的预后
1Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Wuhan No. 1 Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.
Technology in cancer research & treatment
|May 10, 2024
概括
初级状细胞甲状腺癌 (PSCTC) 是罕见的,但年龄较大是不良结果的危险因素. 一个新的名图准确地预测PSCTC患者的预后,帮助个性化治疗策略.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 初级状细胞甲状腺癌 (PSCTC) 是一种非常罕见的恶性瘤,占所有甲状腺癌的不到1%.
- 影响PSCTC患者结果的预后因素尚未明确,需要进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 确定诊断为PSCTC的患者的独立预后因素.
- 开发和验证PSCTC患者预后的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 从监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (1975-2016) 中分析了大量队列 (198,757名患者).
- 对五种主要的甲状腺癌病理类型进行比较预后分析.
- 考克斯回归和细灰竞争风险模型的应用,以确定PSCTC的预后因素.
- 基于精细灰色模型进行PSCTC预后预测的nomogram的开发.
主要成果:
- 在研究的甲状腺癌类型中,PSCTC和形甲状腺癌的预后是最差的 (P < .001).
- 在PSCTC中,高级年龄 (71-95岁) 被确定为减少整体和疾病特异性存活时间的独立风险因素.
- 发现更多的in situ/恶性瘤 (≥2) 是PSCTC预后的保护因素.
- 开发的名图表在预测PSCTC患者预后方面表现出很高的准确性,通过AUC,C指数,校准和决策曲线分析进行验证.
结论:
- 竞争性风险名图为预测PSCTC预后提供了一个高度准确的工具.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助临床医生为PSCTC患者量身定制个性化治疗计划.
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