情绪因素对股票投资组合回报的影响 - - 一项经验分析
1Institute of Management Technology, Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
Heliyon
|May 10, 2024
概括
宏观经济和情绪因素显著影响美国行业的投资组合回报. 短期利率对制造业产生负面影响,而市场情绪对多个行业产生积极影响,为投资者提供关键见解.
科学领域:
- 金融 金融 金融 金融 金融
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 投资管理 投资管理
背景情况:
- 了解投资组合回报的驱动因素对于投资策略至关重要.
- 现有的研究往往孤立地分析宏观经济或情感因素.
- 这些因素在不同行业的相互作用仍然很复杂.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个综合模型,评估宏观经济和情绪因素对美国行业投资组合回报的综合影响.
- 分类和分析整个市场,消费者和个人股票市场情绪的影响.
- 为投资组合优化提供特定部门的见解.
主要方法:
- 使用自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型进行实证分析.
- 研究了美国市场的十个行业.
- 在整个市场,消费者和个人股票市场情绪指标之间进行区分.
主要成果:
- 短期利率与制造业,电信和批发/零售业的投资组合回报有负相关性.
- 市场情绪对持久,非持久,公用事业和其他行业的回报产生了积极的影响.
- 个人情绪因素表现出不同的影响,对高科技和公用事业部门产生负面影响,而IPO对能源部门的回报产生了积极的影响.
结论:
- 利率和市场情绪等宏观经济变量显著影响行业投资组合回报.
- 消费者情绪是多个行业回报的关键积极驱动因素,包括耐用品,能源和电信.
- 该研究为投资者提供了可操作的见解,以根据特定行业的宏观经济和情绪动态来改进战略.
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