马来西亚约翰霍尔州降雨的不规则性和时间序列趋势分析
Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib1,2, Wan Mohd Razi Idris2,3, Liew Ju Neng2
1Malaysian Agricultural Research and Development Institute (MARDI), Ibu Pejabat MARDI, Persiaran MARDI-UPM, 43400, Serdang, Selangor, Malaysia.
Heliyon
|May 10, 2024
概括
气候变化影响马来西亚柔佛州的降雨,导致极端潮湿和干旱时期. 对历史数据的分析揭示了降雨量下降的趋势,突出了对抗洪水和干旱的适应战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 气候学和气象学 气候学和气象学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球天气模式产生重大影响,降雨变化是一个关键指标.
- 马来西亚,特别是南部的霍尔州,正在经历气候变化的影响,包括与拉尼尼亚和厄尔尼诺等现象相关的洪水和干旱.
- 了解历史降雨趋势对于评估气候变化影响和制定有效的减缓战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了分析1991年至2020年马来西亚约翰霍尔州的历史降雨数据.
- 为了确定降雨模式的趋势,变化和强度.
- 评估干旱的严重程度,并识别极端潮湿和干旱时期.
主要方法:
- 使用正常性和均性测试进行数据质量保证.
- 由于非正常分布,使用曼-肯达尔和森的斜率估计器进行降雨趋势分析.
- 使用标准化的降水异常,变化系数,降水度指数,降雨异常指数和标准降水指数来评估降雨变化,强度和干旱严重程度.
主要成果:
- 柔佛州的年度和季节性降雨量呈现下降趋势,尽管在统计学上并不显著.
- 该研究确定了极端潮湿的年份 (例如2007年) 和干旱的年份 (例如1997年,1998年,2016年),与重大洪水和厄尔尼诺现象相关.
- 三月和四月被确定为最干燥的月份,这表明季节性降雨的脆弱性.
结论:
- 柔佛的降雨模式表现出显著的变化,导致反复发生的洪水和干旱事件.
- 这些发现强调了气候变化对区域天气模式的切实影响.
- 结果为制定有针对性的适应和减缓战略提供了基础,以减少约翰霍尔的气候变化影响.
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