湿氧和结核之间的关联:中国全国两阶段建模研究
Wen Li1,2, Jia Wang3, Wenzhong Huang4
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
BMC public health
|May 11, 2024
概括
降低温度和湿度的度量humidex,显著增加了中国的结核病 (TB) 风险. 这一发现强调了humidex作为预测结核病发病率的关键因素,特别是在高增长地区.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 温度和湿度对结核病 (TB) 发病率的综合影响仍未得到充分研究,特别是在气候变化的背景下.
- 了解这些共同影响对于公共卫生准备和疾病控制战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究温度和相对湿度对中国结核病发病率的联合影响.
- 探索humidex作为结核病发病率预测者的潜在作用,并确定效果修饰剂.
主要方法:
- 一项时间序列研究分析了22个中国城市 (2011-2020) 的每周结核病例和气象数据.
- 计算了Humidex指数,以表示温度和湿度的联合暴露.
- 用分布式滞后非线性模型 (DLNM) 和多变量元回归来评估关联和变量.
主要成果:
- 在研究期间,共记录了849,676例结核病病例.
- 在humidex和TB发病率之间观察到J形关系,humidex降低与结核病风险增加相关 (最大RR1.40).
- 低湿氧暴露对结核病发病率产生了延迟和持续的影响,根据自然生长率 (NGR) 变化.
结论:
- 在中国的humidex和结核病发病率之间存在显著的J形关联.
- 与单个温度或湿度指标相比,Humidex显示出作为结核病发病率的优越预测指标的潜力.
- 湿度指数的预测值在NGR较高的地区特别明显.
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