从第一师大学棒球运动员的击球结果进行分类
Z Farrel1, P C Jones1, C A Lowe2
1Athletics Department, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, USA.
Journal of sports sciences
|May 12, 2024
概括
现代棒球分析显示,球员的身高,出口速度,发射角度和击球距离显著影响了命中概率. 挂时间会对结果产生负面影响,挑战关于游戏中的情况的传统信仰.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 棒球分析 棒球分析
- 性能优化 性能优化
背景情况:
- 关于棒球表现的事信念往往缺乏经验支持.
- 现代技术允许对各种性能因素进行客观测量.
- 了解击球结果对于评估球员表现至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用客观数据对击球结果进行分类.
- 检查人类学,游戏中的情况和基于技术的变量对命中概率的影响.
- 挑战和验证有关棒球表现因素的传统信仰.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自2021年大学棒球比赛中230名球员的1,922个击球结果的数据.
- 独立变量包括由TrackMan雷达测量的人类测量 (身高,体重),游戏中的情况 (击球方,计数,投球类型) 和基于技术的指标 (出口速度,发射角度,击球距离,悬挂时间).
- 进行了二进制后勤回归分析,以确定独立变量对击球结果的意义.
主要成果:
- 该模型结合了所有独立变量,证明了很好的匹配,并正确地分类了近75%的击球结果.
- 对于球员身高,出口速度 (ExSp),发射角度 (LA) 和击球距离 (BBD) 发现了与击球结果的显著积极关联.
- 悬挂时间 (HT) 与击球结果有显著的负相关性. 游戏中的情境变量是无意义的,人类测量的贡献是温和的.
结论:
- 用TrackMan雷达测量的基于技术的变量 (ExSp,LA,BBD,HT) 是击球结果的重要预测因素.
- 玩家身高具有适度但显著的影响,而游戏中的情境因素具有无意义的影响,这与事信念相矛盾.
- 客观数据分析提供了比传统假设更准确的了解棒球表现.
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