对灰犀牛风险的规划:如何为"不可预见"事物做好准备
1Crisis Management Expert.
Journal of business continuity & emergency planning
|May 13, 2024
概括
灰犀牛的风险,高影响但低概率的事件,需要积极的规划. 这项研究提供了一种方法来识别和准备组织应对这些关键的"灰犀牛"风险,而不仅仅是将它们视为不可预测的风险.
科学领域:
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 战略规划 战略规划
- 组织性 组织性
背景情况:
- 灰犀牛的风险是高影响,低概率的事件,由于缓解计划的延迟,经常被忽视.
- 之前的工作引入了一种方法来识别和突出灰犀牛风险.
- 目前的方法往往将这些风险视为不可预见的,阻碍了准备工作.
研究的目的:
- 通过展示针对已识别的灰犀牛风险的实际规划来推进风险管理.
- 将组织视角从忽视灰犀牛是不可预见的转变为积极为它们做准备.
- 提供可行的策略,将灰犀牛风险减轻整合到组织框架中.
主要方法:
- 基于以前建立的方法来识别灰犀牛风险.
- 开发和说明针对这些已识别的风险的具体规划和准备策略.
- 专注于组织结构内的实际实施.
主要成果:
- 组织可以通过实施针对灰犀牛风险的结构化规划,超越反应性立场.
- 积极的准备可以显著提高组织对高影响事件的弹性.
- 该研究为识别和解决"不可预见"但可预测的高后果风险提供了一个框架.
结论:
- 在组织战略中,必须重新评估和重新优先考虑灰犀牛风险.
- 组织必须积极规划灰犀牛风险,而不是将它们视为不可预见的.
- 实施强有力的规划方法是提高组织准备能力和恢复能力的关键.
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