在标准化治疗后,Nomograms预测SCLC患者的PFS和OS:现实世界的研究
Ke Li1,2, Lupeng Qiu1,2, Yang Zhao3
1Medical School of Chinese PLA, Beijing, 100853, People's Republic of China.
International journal of general medicine
|May 13, 2024
概括
这项研究开发并验证了名谱模型,以预测小细胞肺癌 (SCLC) 患者的无进展生存期 (PFS) 和整体生存期 (OS). 这些模型根据治疗反应准确评估患者的预后.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医学统计 医学统计
- 临床研究 临床研究
背景情况:
- 小细胞肺癌 (SCLC) 在预测患者结果方面存在独特的挑战.
- 了解从治疗疗效到疾病进展的轨迹对于管理SCLC至关重要.
- 现有的预后模型可能无法完全捕捉SCLC患者存活率的细微差别.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究小细胞肺癌 (SCLC) 从治疗反应到死亡的进展.
- 评估治疗反应对SCLC无进展生存 (PFS) 和总生存 (OS) 的预测价值.
- 在SCLC患者中开发和验证PFS和OS的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 对136名SCLC患者 (1992-2018) 的回顾性分析,以确定预后因素.
- 构建名ogram模型来预测一线PFS (PFS1) 和OS.
- 使用106名SCLC患者的独立队列 (2014-2021) 验证模型.
主要成果:
- 为了预测SCLC患者的PFS1和OS,开发了两个名图.
- 模型显示出高的区分能力 (PFS1的AUC在3,6,12个月:0.919,0.908,0.878;OS在6,12,24个月:0.814,0.819,0.809).
- 校准曲线证实了预测值和观察值之间的良好一致;高风险和低风险组显示出显著的生存差异,在独立队列中得到验证.
结论:
- 开发和验证的诺莫格拉姆模型准确地预测SCLC患者的PFS1和OS.
- 模型是基于标准化治疗后的治疗反应.
- 经过验证的模型显示了对SCLC预后的良好准确性,可靠性和临床适用性.
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