坏果和令人难以置信的确定性
Michael Sierra-Arévalo1, Andrew Papachristos2
1Department of Sociology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA.
Criminology & public policy
|May 13, 2024
概括
删除"坏果"可能比以前认为的更有效地减少警察不当行为. 对网络溢出效应的核算显著增加了估计的影响,这表明这种方法提供了巨大的好处.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共政策 公共政策
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 警方的不当行为,包括过度使用武力和民间投诉,给公众的信任和安全带来了重大挑战.
- 之前的研究已经探索了各种干预措施来缓解警察不当行为.
- 删除"坏果"官员的有效性仍然是争论的主题.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估查尔芬和卡普兰 (CK) 关于使"坏果"官员无能为力对警察不当行为的影响的结论.
- 通过纳入网络溢出效应,重新检查清除表现不佳的官员的有效性.
- 评估减少警察不当行为的不同方法对政策的影响.
主要方法:
- 模拟分析使用来自芝加哥警察局的警察投诉和使用武力的数据.
- 批评CK对模拟结果的选择性使用.
- 将网络溢出效应纳入不当行为分析.
主要成果:
- 质疑CK的结论是,使军官无能化对不当行为的影响最小.
- 当考虑网络溢出效应时,删除"坏果"的估计影响可能高达五倍.
- 消除"坏果"的有效性与旨在减少警察不当行为的其他干预措施相美.
结论:
- 删除"坏果"警察是减少警察不当行为的潜在有效策略.
- 在评估干预措施时,政策决策应考虑更广泛的影响,包括网络溢出影响.
- 减少警察不当行为在减少人类痛苦和财务成本方面带来了显著的好处,这使得追求警察问责制成为道德上的必需品.
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