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无效结果的复制:没有证据或没有证据的证据?

Samuel Pawel¹, Rachel Heyard¹, Charlotte Micheloud¹

¹Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute, Center for Reproducible Science, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

|May 13, 2024

概括

将非显著的结果解释为复制成功是有缺陷的. 像等效测试和贝叶斯因子这样的新方法可以更好地评估复制研究中缺乏效应的情况.

科学领域:

心理学心理学心理学
生物学生物学生物学
哲学哲学是一个哲学.

背景情况:

大规模的复制项目往往将原始和复制研究中的统计学上非显著的结果解释为"复制成功".
这种解释面临逻辑上的挑战,因为非显著性并不证实效应的缺失,并且可以通过小样本大小来实现.
目前的方法无法充分控制重复结果评估中的相关错误率.

研究的目的:

批判性地评估解释非显著结果作为"复制成功"的解释.
介绍和证明等价性测试和贝叶斯因子的实用性,用于量化在复制研究中缺乏效应的证据.
重新评估来自突出的可重复性项目的研究结果,强调许多"零结果"的不确定性.

主要方法:

在复制的背景下对统计非显著性的逻辑分析.
应用等价性测试和贝叶斯因子来评估证据表明没有影响.
从可复制性项目:癌症生物学,实验哲学可复制性项目和可复制性项目:心理学中重新分析数据.

主要成果:

在原始和复制研究中统计学上非显著的结果在逻辑上并不能保证没有影响.
小样本大小可以导致错误的结论"复制成功"与非显著的发现.
重复分析显示,从可复制性项目:癌症生物学,实验哲学可复制性项目和可复制性项目:心理学中,许多具有"无结果"的研究是不确定的.

结论:

将非显著的结果解释为复制成功在逻辑上是不合理的,在统计学上也是有问题的.
相当性测试和贝叶斯因子提供了更严格的方法来量化复制研究中缺少效应的证据.
复制具有统计学非显著结果的研究至关重要,但需要适当的设计,分析和解释才能得出有意义的结论.

关键词:

贝叶斯式假设测试测试贝叶斯式假设测试癌症生物学癌症生物学同等性测试等同性的测试.超级研究的研究.没有,没有,没有.虚假假说虚假假说虚假假说复制成功复制成功

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