2022年的通货膨胀没有影响国会投票,但堕胎确实影响了
Diana C Mutz1,2, Edward D Mansfield1
1Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
概括
2022年中期选举的选民转变是由堕胎观点驱动的,而不是经济问题. 对最高法院信心下降也影响了投票,有利于民主党候选人.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 选举行为 选举行为
- 公众的意见 公众的意见
背景情况:
- 中期选举往往会在选民支持度上出现显著的变化.
- 传统上,经济条件被认为是选举结果的主要驱动因素.
- 预计2022年美国国会选举将反映经济不满.
研究的目的:
- 调查影响2022年美国中期选举投票变化的主要因素.
- 确定经济条件与社会问题在选民决策中的作用.
- 检查司法情绪对党派投票行为的影响.
主要方法:
- 对2020年和2022年受访选民的代表性全国概率样本的分析.
- 根据经济指标和对堕胎的看法,投票变化的统计检查.
- 评估美国最高法院信任和投票模式变化之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 投票变化与通货膨胀或经济状况没有显著的相关性.
- 对堕胎的看法是选民改变党派支持的核心因素.
- 对美国最高法院信心下降与向民主党候选人转移有关.
- 新选民在他们的选举中不成比例地对堕胎的看法进行了权衡.
结论:
- 堕胎的突出性,而不是经济因素,是2022年中期选举结果的关键驱动因素.
- 改变选民对司法机构的态度可能会影响党派选举政治.
- 这些发现挑战了关于经济问题在选举中占据主导地位的传统假设.
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