在撒哈拉以南非洲的小农农业系统中,作物产量未能提高
Philip Wollburg1,2, Thomas Bentze1, Yuchen Lu3
1Living Standards Measurement Study, Development Data Group, World Bank, Rome 00184, Italy.
概括
2008年至2019年间,非洲小农场的生产率没有改善,总因子生产率 (TFP) 每年都在下降. 这一发现凸显了撒哈拉以南非洲地区农业发展和减少贫困的重大挑战.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 发展研究 发展研究 研究
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 小农对于减少全球贫困和实现联合国可持续发展目标至关重要.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲的农业生产率是经济发展的关键因素.
- 以前的分析通常依赖于国家统计数据,限制了微观层面的洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 分析从2008年到2019年在六个非洲国家的小农作物生产率的变化.
- 通过使用详细的农场级数据,评估总要素生产率 (TFP) 的趋势.
- 确定非洲撒哈拉以南地区的挑战,并为农业发展战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了超过55,000个小农场的协调纵向数据集.
- 综合农业输入/输出数据与当地天气和环境条件.
- 采用统计模型来估计总因子生产率 (TFP) 的趋势.
主要成果:
- 在12年期间,没有证据表明小农作物生产率有所改善.
- 首选的TFP规范显示,平均每年下降幅度为-3.5%.
- 其他模型也显示生产率下降;没有模型表明增长.
结论:
- 撒哈拉以南非洲的农业面临着持续和重大挑战.
- 尽管有努力,但小农的生产率并没有提高,这影响了减贫目标.
- 微数据分析揭示了与总体国家统计数据不同的关键见解.
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