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相关概念视频

Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
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Hypothesis testing is a fundamental statistical tool that begins with the assumption that the null hypothesis H0 is true. During this process, two types of errors can occur: Type I and Type II. A Type I error refers to the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis, while a Type II error involves the failure to reject a false null hypothesis.
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While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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An important characteristic of any set of data is the variation in the data. In some data sets, the data values are concentrated closely near the mean; in other data sets, the data values are more widely spread out from the mean. The most common measure of variation, or spread, is the standard deviation, which is the square root of variance.
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相关实验视频

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Errors as a Means of Reducing Impulsive Food Choice
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惊喜!-澄清了洞察力和预测错误之间的联系.

Maxi Becker1, Xinhao Wang2, Roberto Cabeza2,3

  • 1Department of Psychology, Humboldt University Berlin, Berlin, Germany. maxi_becker@gmx.net.

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概括

AHA体验,即深入理解的时刻,与元认知预测错误 (PE) 有关. 问题解决过程中的惊喜是这种PE的独特信号,为认知过程提供了新的见解.

关键词:
阿哈体验阿哈体验复合远程关联人员 复合远程关联人员洞察力 洞察力 洞察力 洞察力 洞察力预测错误是因为预测错误.这是一个惊喜的惊喜.

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科学领域:

  • 认知心理学 认知心理学
  • 神经科学是一个神经科学.
  • 决策研究 决策研究

背景情况:

  • AHA的经历,以突然的洞察力和理解为特征,长期以来一直吸引着心理学家.
  • 最近的理论提出了AHA经验和预测错误 (PE) 之间的联系,这是决策和强化学习的概念.
  • 现有的框架表明,当问题比预期的更快地解决时,会出现元认知性PE.

研究的目的:

  • 调查预测错误是否延伸到关于问题解决能力的预测.
  • 确定AHA经验的哪些组成部分与元认知PE相关.
  • 探索惊喜之间的关系,一个关键的AHA维度,和元认知PE.

主要方法:

  • 通过使用口头洞察力问题进行了预先注册的在线研究.
  • 分析了AHA经验和与问题解决能力相关的元认知PE之间的关联.
  • 研究了特定的AHA维度 (惊喜,快乐,确定性,突然性) 和元认知PE之间的相关性.

主要成果:

  • 在AHA经验和关于问题解决能力的元认知PE之间发现了积极的关联.
  • 惊喜因素与元认知性PE有显著的相关性.
  • 快乐,确定性和突然性没有显示类似的相关性;突然性表现出负相关性.

结论:

  • 这些发现支持了AHA经验的特定方面,特别是惊喜和元认知PE之间的联系.
  • 这项研究突出了AHA经验的多面性质.
  • 这项研究将洞察现象与已建立的学习理论联系起来,推进我们对认知过程的理解.