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从1990年到2019年,全球,区域和国家热浪相关死亡负担:一个三阶段建模研究
Qi Zhao1,2, Shanshan Li2, Tingting Ye2
1Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health/Qilu hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
PLoS medicine
|May 14, 2024
概括
从1990年到2019年,全球热浪造成了显著的死亡率,在适应需求方面存在区域差异. 虽然总体而言,热浪死亡人数有所下降,但脆弱地区需要针对性干预,以应对气候变化.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 热浪死亡率的区域差异阻碍了全球气候变化适应计划.
- 量化热浪造成的全球死亡负担对于有针对性的风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 以高空间分辨率 (0.5°×0.5°) 量化热浪的全球死亡负担.
- 评估1990年至2019年热浪相关死亡率的时间变化.
- 为了确定热浪死亡负担和趋势的地理差异.
主要方法:
- 从750个全球地点 (1990-2019) 收集了每日死亡和温度数据.
- 定义热浪为特定位置的温度≥95百分位数≥2天.
- 采用多变量元回归来估计热浪与死亡率的关联,并预测网格细胞之间的负担.
主要成果:
- 在1990-2019年期间,热浪每年占全球死亡人数的0.94% (153,078例).
- 人均与热浪相关的死亡人数每十年下降7.2%,但地理差异很大.
- 在南欧/东欧和高收入地区观察到最高的死亡负担;最大的下降是在热带/低收入地区.
结论:
- 热浪在全球范围内造成了相当大的和空间变化的死亡负担.
- 调查结果强调,需要在公共卫生中采取适应性策略,以建立弹性.
- 解决社会经济和地理不平等问题对于有效适应热浪至关重要.
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