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饮用水中的化学健康风险的生物测试预测值

Tessa E Pronk¹, Renske P J Hoondert¹, Stefan A E Kools¹

¹KWR Water Research Institute, Groningenhaven 7, 3433 PE Nieuwegein, the Netherlands.

Environment international

|May 14, 2024

概括

生物分析工具在低于基于效应的触发值 (EBT) 的情况下可靠地表明没有化学风险. 然而,超过EBT可能并不总是标志着有害度,特别是复杂的混合物.

科学领域:

环境化学环境化学
毒理学毒理学毒理学
风险评估风险评估

背景情况:

生物分析工具对于评估饮用水的化学质量至关重要.
水资源管理者需要了解超出基于健康的触发值的生物测试反应的可靠性.

研究的目的:

提出和应用贝叶斯框架来计算生物试验反应的风险概率.
评估生物测试在各种与饮用水相关的化学混合方案下的预测值.

主要方法:

利用贝叶斯定理来推导生物试验反应的风险概率.
从ToxCast数据库中评估了六项体外测试,使用in silico化学混合物.
根据负预测值 (NPV) 和正预测值 (PPV) 评估业绩.

主要成果:

在所有测试中达到100%的NPV,证实在低于基于效应的触发值 (EBT) 的情况下没有风险.
对于2μg/L以上的度,正预测值 (PPV) 范围在40-80%之间,根据试验而异.
对于复杂的低度混合物,PPV仍然很低,表明潜在的错误阳性.

结论:

生物测试可靠地排除了低于EBT的化学风险.
超过EBT在确认有害度方面存在局限性,特别是在各种低度混合物中.
调整触发值可以优化水质管理的预测值.

关键词:

基于效果的方法基于效果的方法在体外 (in vitro) 的情况下.预测值是一个预测值.风险评估风险评估风险评估水的质量水的质量

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